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Meteorologistas preveem 2012 entre os 10 anos mais quentes

O ano de 2012 pode se tornar um dos dez mais quentes desde 1850, com temperaturas globais quase 0,5 grau Celsius mais elevadas que a média registrada no período 1961-1990, afirmou o Met Office, o Departamento de Meteorologia do Reino Unido.

O Met Office e a Universidade de East Anglia divulgaram no mês passado dados preliminares mostrando que 2011 foi o 11º ano mais quente já registrado, 0,36 grau Celsius acima da média de longo prazo aferida entre as décadas de 1960 e 1990, que foi de 14 graus.

Os meteorologistas previram que em 2012 o desvio acima

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da média será de 0,48 grau, com uma margem de erro de 0,14 grau para mais ou menos.

“Em 2011, vimos um fortíssimo La Niña [fenômeno climático caracterizado pelo resfriamento das águas no Pacífico equatorial], que pode resfriar temporariamente as temperaturas globais.”

“O La Niña voltou, e embora não seja tão forte quanto no começo do ano passado, ainda assim deve influenciar as temperaturas, e esperamos que 2012 seja ligeiramente mais quente do que no ano passado, mas não tão quente quanto 2010”, disse Adam Scaife, chefe do departamento do Met Office que realiza previsões de longo prazo.

O Met Office disse que suas cifras relativas a 2011 foram parecidas com as publicadas pela OMM (Organização Meteorológica Mundial), que estimou a temperatura do ano passado em 0,41º grau acima do normal.

A OMM considera que 2010 foi o ano mais quente já registrado. A organização também indicou que todos os 12 anos mais quentes da história ocorreram entre 1998 e 2011.

As estimativas da OMM se baseiam em dados do Met Office, do Centro Nacional de Dados Climáticos dos Estados Unidos e do Instituto Goddard de Estudos Espaciais, da Nasa.


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