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Painel do clima da ONU errou ao prever degelo no Ártico

Um novo estudo de cientistas dos EUA e da França sugere que o IPCC, o painel do clima das Nações Unidas, errou feio em suas previsões sobre o degelo do Ártico. No caso, errou para baixo: o derretimento observado é quatro vezes maior do que apontam os modelos.

O grupo de pesquisadores liderados por Pierre Rampal, do MIT (Instituto de Tecnologia de Massachusetts), publicou seus dados na edição desta semana do periódigo “Journal of Geophysical Research”.

Eles uniram dados de modelagem com observações de satélites, navios e até submarinos para estimar que o mar congelado que recobre o oceano Ártico está afinando a uma taxa de 16% por década. Os modelos que alimentaram o relatório do IPCC, publicado em 2007, estimam essa taxa em 4%.

Segundo Rampal e seus colegas, os modelos climáticos computacionais que estimaram um polo Norte sem gelo no verão em 2100 estão atrasados 40 anos em relação às observações. Da mesma forma, o papel da chamada “amplificação ártica” –como é conhecido o efeito de aumento da temperatura devido à perda do gelo marinho e à maior absorção de radiação solar pelo oceano– provavelmente foi subestimado.

Isso se deve principalmente ao fato de que os modelos não conseguiram reproduzir o aumento de velocidade que ocorre quando o gelo fica mais fino.

O mar congelado do Ártico está em permanente movimento, seguindo as correntes. Todo verão, elas empurram enormes quantidades de gelo para fora do oceano Ártico, pelo chamado estreito de Fram, entre a Groenlândia e o arquipélago norueguês de Svalbard, diminuindo a área do mar congelado.

Acontece que, com a água mais quente, as placas de gelo ficam mais finas (a média entre 1980 e 2008 é de 1,65 metro de afinamento no verão) e se rompem mais. Isso consequentemente aumenta a velocidade de “exportação” do gelo e, por consequência, amplia a redução de área da banquisa.

Em agosto deste ano, a Folha teve oportunidade de experimentar essa alta velocidade do gelo no estreito de Fram a bordo do navio Arctic Sunrise, da ONG Greenpeace. A amarrado a uma placa de gelo de mais de 200 m de comprimento, o navio derivou cerca de 80 km em dois dias.

Rampal afirma que os modelos falham em capturar essa relação entre deformação e velocidade. Aplicando a metodologia usada no novo estudo aos modelos, eles conseguiram resolver quase todas as diferenças entre modelos e observações –o que pode ajudar a estimar com maior precisão o papel do Ártico no clima futuro da Terra.

Fonte: Folha.com




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