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Ciclones tropicais estão se fortalecendo, diz estudo

LONDRES – Os mais fortes ciclones tropicais estão ganhando intensidade, principalmente na metade norte dos oceanos Atlântico e Índico, segundo uma pesquisa publicada nesta quarta-feira, 3, pela revista científica britânica Nature.

A elevação da temperatura na superfície dos oceanos faz com que aumentem as velocidades máximas do vento dos ciclones mais fortes.

Uma equipe de pesquisadores da Florida State University, dos Estados Unidos, liderada por James Elsner analisou os dados de ciclones gerados por satélites nos últimos 25 anos.

A partir deles, descobriram que o recente aumento da temperatura das superfícies do Atlântico Norte tropical está fortalecendo os ciclones na região.

Os autores do estudo afirmam que o aumento da temperatura da superfície do oceano em um grau Celsius faz com que cresça em 31% a freqüência global dos ciclones mais violentos: de 13 a 17 fenômenos desse tipo ao ano.

Além disso, explicam que, quanto mais forte for o ciclone, mais evidente é a mudança na velocidade de seus ventos.

Com exceção do Oceano Pacífico Sul, todas as bacias oceânicas mostram isso, embora não no mesmo grau: os maiores aumentos se dão no Atlântico Norte e no norte do Índico.

Os pesquisadores explicam que no resto dos trópicos as tendências na intensidade dos ciclones são menos evidentes.

Neste sentido, reconhecem que calcular as tendências em outras zonas dos trópicos foi difícil devido à falta de dados.

Os cientistas concluem que estes resultados vão ao encontro da teoria do motor térmico da intensidade dos ciclones: à medida que os mares se aquecem, o oceano tem maior energia que pode ser liberada sob a forma de ventos ciclônicos.

No entanto, advertem de que ainda há uma grande falta de dados disponíveis e que o estudo não inclui outros fatores importantes, como a origem e a duração do ciclone, a proximidade com a terra, as condições do fenômeno El Niño e a atividade solar.

Fonte: O Estado de São Paulo

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