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Apesar de aquecimento, ‘furacões serão menos freqüentes’

Uma pesquisa realizada por especialistas americanos prevê que, até o fim do século, furacões e tempestades tropicais serão menos freqüentes, porém de maior intensidade, como resultado das mudanças climáticas.
A equipe do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admnistration (Noaa), ligado ao governo americano, prevê que a atividade dos furacões no oceano Atlântico nas últimas duas décadas do século diminuirá em até 18% e a das tempestades tropicais, em 27%.

O estudo, publicado na revista especializada Nature Geoscience, não ampara a tese de que o aquecimento global resultante do impacto da ação humana esteja provocando o aumento no número dos furacões.

“Há estudos que sustentam esta idéia, mas nosso modelo de estudo não aponta para esta direção”, afirmou o coordenador do trabalho, Tom Knutson.

“Ao contrário, nós verificamos uma redução na freqüência de furacões no Atlântico, porém, um aumento em sua intensidade”, acrescentou.

O aumento na intensidade, porém, também não seria tão expressivo como se imagina.

Uma pesquisa realizada anteriormente por cientistas do Noaa chegou a apontar que a intensidade dos fenômenos pode aumentar em até 4% para cada acréscimo de 1ºC na temperatura da superfície do mar.

O atual estudo, no entanto, mostrou uma variação menor de intensidade, de entre 1% e 2%.

Ventos

Segundo os cientistas, um dos fatores para a redução da freqüência dos furacões seria um aumento na “diferença de velocidade e direção entre os ventos da superfície do mar e os de maior altitude”.

“Nós observamos menores índices na variação das velocidades dos ventos verticais nos últimos anos, mas tudo indica que daqui por diante haverá um aumento nesta variação”, disse Knutson.

O pesquisador disse não esperar que o estudo ponha fim ao debate científico em torno do impacto da ação humana nas mudanças climáticas.

“O ponto principal deste trabalho é enfatizar que não há evidências de que as mudanças climáticas estejam provocando um aumento na freqüência dos furacões e ou das tempestades tropicais sobre o Atlântico”, afirmou.

Fonte: BBC Brasil




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