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Oceano Ártico Perde 300 mil km² de Gelo em Apenas um Ano

Os cientistas dizem que o oceano Ártico está para o clima assim como o canário para a mina: deve-se ver como reage, porque é extremamente sensível às mudanças de temperatura.

E está reagindo mal. Em março de 2006 os satélites da Nasa mediram 300 mil quilômetros a menos de gelo que em 2005 (uma superfície equivalente a 60% da Espanha).

A perda de gelo, contínua desde que começaram as medições em 1987, só está acelerando, e a previsão moderada diz que em 2070 não haverá gelo flutuante no verão.

A opinião pessimista fala em 2030, o que permitiria abrir novas rotas comerciais por mar.

Em março de 1979 os satélites constataram uma superfície gelada de 16,5 milhões de quilômetros quadrados no Ártico. Em 2005 havia 14,8 milhões e em março passado, 14,5 milhões.

O mínimo deste ano representa 12% a menos que em 1979 e 2% a menos que em 2005. Os satélites medem o gelo flutuante, e não o que existe sobre a Groenlândia ou os países próximos ao Círculo Polar Ártico.

“Estamos de olhos arregalados. Em março de 2006 vimos 300 mil km de gelo flutuante a menos que um ano antes. É o menor dado desde que começamos as medições com satélite em 1979, mas está se acelerando a cada ano”, explica por telefone Mark Serreze, do centro nacional para o estudo do gelo dos EUA, situado na Universidade do Colorado.

O gelo no Ártico varia com a estação. No verão derrete em parte, em setembro alcança o mínimo, com o inverno começa a crescer até que em março chega ao máximo e a partir daí começa a baixar, em um novo ciclo.

Círculo vicioso

“Até agora vimos declínios acentuados em setembro, mas depois parecia recuperar-se”, acrescenta Serreze. Hoje não mais.

Os cientistas acreditam que o Ártico entrou em um círculo vicioso e incontível, e de uma lógica arrasadora: o derretimento do gelo no verão aumenta a superfície da água, que é escura e absorve mais radiação solar que o gelo, que reflete grande parte dela. Ao absorver mais radiação, o Ártico esquenta mais e derrete mais gelo, o que aumenta a superfície de água capaz de absorver radiação, e assim infinitamente.

Por isso as previsões ficam defasadas todos os anos. “Em setembro demos um ritmo de degelo de 8% a cada década, mas é possível que precisemos revisá-la para cima”, explica Serreze.

O cientista diz que as previsões atuais calculavam que o Ártico poderia ficar sem gelo no verão a partir de 2070, mas adverte:

“Novos estudos indicam que isso poderá acontecer antes, até em 2030. A diferença é que alguns cálculos utilizam o aquecimento da atmosfera e outros também o impacto do aquecimento dos oceanos, e parece que este pode aumentar a velocidade do degelo”.

Esse degelo quase completo abre enormes possibilidades, como novas rotas marítimas ou novas jazidas de petróleo e gás a serem prospectadas.

Todas as regiões do planeta sofrem variações climáticas de forma natural, mas segundo Serreze o caso do Ártico aponta para o aquecimento global induzido pela emissão de gases do efeito estufa.

Esses gases, principalmente o dióxido de carbono produzido pela queima de combustíveis fósseis como petróleo, acumulam-se na atmosfera e dificultam a saída do calor que a Terra emite em forma de radiação.

“O Equador e os trópicos são os emissores de calor da Terra. O Ártico é o ralo; ao modificá-los, modificamos todo o clima”, acrescentou o pesquisador.

Esse degelo não afeta o nível do mar, assim como uma pedra de gelo, ao derreter, não faz o copo transbordar.

(Fonte: El Pais)

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